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Expert Says
July 13, 2020 7:39PM EDT

Kanye West’s Chances Of Winning Presidency Same As ‘An Extraterrestrial’s — Election Expert Explains

Kanye West
'Jimmy Kimmel Live' TV show, Los Angeles, USA - 09 Aug 2018
Cody, WY  - *EXCLUSIVE*  - Despite his ongoing personal dramas, troubled rapper Kanye West is all smiles at the wheel of his Ford Raptor as he cruises through the town in Cody, Wyoming.

Pictured: Kanye West

BACKGRID USA 26 JULY 2020 

USA: +1 310 798 9111 / usasales@backgrid.com

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*UK Clients - Pictures Containing Children
Please Pixelate Face Prior To Publication*
EXCLUSIVE: Kanye West wears a security vest and has 2020 shaved in his head as he rants and raves at his first campaign rally in South Carolina. 19 Jul 2020 Pictured: Kanye West. Photo credit: MEGA TheMegaAgency.com +1 888 505 6342 (Mega Agency TagID: MEGA689630_008.jpg) [Photo via Mega Agency]
File photo dated October 11, 2018 of artist Kanye West speaks in the Oval Office of the White House during a meeting with President Trump to discuss criminal justice system and prison reform in Washington, DC. US rapper Kanye West took to Twitter over the weekend to announce he was running for president, with his declaration quickly going viral and prompting a flurry of speculation. His wife Kim Kardashian West and entrepreneur Elon Musk endorsed him. Photo by Olivier Douliery/ Abaca Press(Sipa via AP Images) View Gallery View Gallery 22 Photos.
Samantha Wilson
Political News Editor
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Kanye West winning the 2020 race is almost ‘impossible,’ an election expert tells HL, explaining the key reasons why it’s as likely that we’d see ET in the Oval Office than Ye.

Anyone looking forward to a West presidency may have to put away their Kanye 2020 gear for now. Kanye West winning the 2020 presidential race against Donald Trump and Joe Biden is almost “impossible,” an election expert tells us EXCLUSIVELY. Neil Sroka, Communications Director of Democracy For America, a political action group that helps elect people of color and white progressives into office, explains why it would be so difficult for a candidate like Kanye to win the presidency on a campaign started just four months before the election.

“It’s just to say, the odds of being able to win as an Independent candidate for president are very long even under the best of circumstances, for a variety of reasons,” Neil said. “The idea of trying to launch something in July of an election year is beyond absurd. That’s the long and short of it: logistically, it is very, very difficult for an Independent to run a campaign, even if they had been planning this for years.”

Kanye hasn’t been planning this for years, as we know. The rapper announced his candidacy on July 4, writing on Twitter, “We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States! #2020VISION.” That leaves him just four months to put in the work that Trump and Biden have done in four years.

We must now realize the promise of America by trusting God, unifying our vision and building our future. I am running for president of the United States 🇺🇸! #2020VISION

— ye (@kanyewest) July 5, 2020

It’s not enough to just declare that he’s running for president to enter the race, Neil explained. Candidates need to file paperwork with the Federal Elections Commission to formally register their campaign, and as of July 13, Kanye has not. Once that’s complete, he’ll need to focus on getting on the ballot, which will prove to be a significant roadblock. Since Kanye would be running as an Independent candidate, he would need to petition each state individually to have his name printed on the ballot.

Difficult enough as is, but Kanye has already missed the deadline in 10 states, and deadlines in others are quickly approaching. “Even if you were the most well-known person in the world, you’d need ballot access,” Neil explained. For most of the remaining states, Kanye is required to gather a number of signatures from residents who support his campaign. In Florida, for example, Kanye needs 132,781 signatures by July 15. In a few states, like Colorado, Kanye would only need to pay a fee to appear on the ballot — which isn’t hard, considering the man’s a billionaire married to another billionaire.

The alternative is launching a write-in campaign. “Which has never been successful,” Neil added. And that requires — you guessed it — more paperwork and deadlines. “In 33 states, you need to file some sort of paperwork,” he said. “People could write ‘Mickey Mouse’ on the ballot, and unless Mickey Mouse filed an affidavit announcing his candidacy as a write-in, he wouldn’t be president even if he got every single vote.”

Kanye West Donald Trump
Kanye West meets with President Donald Trump at the White House (Shutterstock)

Nine states don’t allow write-ins on the ballot at all: Nevada, New Mexico, South Dakota, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Hawaii. “We’ve never had in the history of America an Independent successfully win a write-in campaign,” Neil stressed. Should Kanye qualify to appear on the ballot come November in some form, he still faces the challenge of cramming in months of endless campaigning in just a matter of weeks.

“You’re even seeing the Democratic presidential candidate and the Republican presidential candidate struggling [to campaign] because you can’t gather people into large groups” during the coronavirus pandemic, Neil said. “And things like traditional door knocking are harder during the COVID crisis. Even in the best of circumstances it would be impossible, and these are not the best of circumstances.”

If Kanye’s name (or write-in option) appears on the ballot in the 2020 presidential election, there’s another concern. As Neil pointed out, there has never been an elected US president from a third party. Kanye joining the race could mean splitting the vote in November. “We do know that [Independent candidates] can alter the course of presidential contests. That’s the real risk of an effort that’s unsuccessful.

“It can move votes from other candidates to another campaign that doesn’t really have a path to victory in the electoral college. If there’s any real discussion about an Independent effort at this point, it would be concern about that. To what extent could it fuel success, or spoil the success of other candidates running for president?” It’s a matter that many have worried over. Kanye doesn’t have a good chance of winning, but Biden does. Taking votes away from the viable candidate means a significant risk of reelecting Trump.

Kanye West
Shutterstock

“After the 2016 election, one has to seriously contemplate the possibility of just about anything,” Neil concluded, referencing Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton. “But the chances of winning an Independent bid that hasn’t started until the Fourth of July is equivalent to an extraterrestrial being winning the presidential contest. Anything is possible. I mean, I could get struck by lightning on a cloudless day, I suppose.”

If you haven’t registered to vote yet, you can change that right now. Register by filling out the form below, courtesy of our partner Rock The Vote:

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