Who ‘Won’ the Harris-Trump Debate? Polls and Observers Weigh In
According to polls, Trump is leading Harris nationally by 48 to 47 percent, well within the margin of error. However, observers felt differently after last night’s debate.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris met for the first time on the debate stage in Philadelphia on Tuesday night for what could be their first and only presidential debate.
It was a stark contrast from the June 27 debate between President Joe Biden, 81, and Trump, 78.
Although Trump did not perform well against Biden in June—struggling with a lack of substance and repeating falsehoods—these issues were overshadowed by Biden’s disastrous performance, which was arguably one of the worst by any presidential candidate in history. This, combined with Trump being shot in the ear in July, a COVID diagnosis, and continued missteps, eventually forced the current president to drop out of the race in his bid for re-election—choosing instead to endorse his 59-year-old VP, Harris.
So, one question remains: was there a clear “winner” in last night’s debate?
The Polls After Harris-Trump Debate
In a CNN/SSRS poll of 600 registered voters who watched the debate, 63% said Harris was the better performer, while 37% sided with Trump. Before the debate, the same voters were evenly split on who they expected to perform best.
This result could be a momentary snapshot, but Harris’s strategy of putting Trump on the defensive was evident early in the evening, particularly on topics like the economy and abortion.
Trump maintains a strong and devoted base, and the seven swing states—Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada—tend to be more conservative than the nation as a whole. Meanwhile, Harris holds a narrow lead in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania and is tied with Trump in four other swing states: Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona.
Polls, including the NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released on Tuesday, show that more people trust Trump over Harris to handle issues such as the economy, immigration, and the Middle East. A New York Times/Siena College poll suggested that Trump leads Harris nationally by 48 to 47 percent, which is well within the margin of error. A CBS News/YouGov poll also shows Harris ahead by one percentage point in Michigan and Wisconsin and tied with Trump in Pennsylvania.
While national polls provide a useful gauge of a candidate’s popularity across the country, they are not always reliable indicators of the election’s outcome.
How Observers Felt After the Debate
Snap polls appeared to capture the immediate reactions of viewers fresh from watching the two candidates exchange words. Among voters who watched the debate and identify as political independents, Harris’s favorability rose to 48%, up from just 30% before the debate.
“Perhaps men are too emotional to be President,” remarked Justin Wolfers, a professor of public policy and economics at the University of Michigan.
“Harris played the long game in tonight’s debate, allowing former President Trump to reference his relationships with Viktor Orban, Kim Jong-un, and Vladimir Putin, as well as present internet-meme conspiracies about Haitian immigrants ‘eating dogs and cats’ in Springfield, Ohio, for a full 56 minutes before she asserted that Trump lacks the ‘temperament’ to be president,” commented Henrietta Treyz, managing partner and director of economic policy research at Veda Partners.
“A lot of Trump’s supporters tuned in tonight expecting to see the mask fall off. The man who marketed himself as strong and in command is flailing, getting rattled, and looks small when challenged. There will be some genuinely surprised and disappointed Trump supporters after tonight’s performance,” observed Alyssa Farah Griffin, former White House communications director during the Trump administration.
“It wasn’t even close. Vice President Harris proved she’s the best choice to lead our nation forward,” said President Biden.