Will Tropical Storm Rafael Strengthen into a Hurricane? Latest Updates

Here’s everything you need to know about the intensifying storm Rafael, formerly known as Tropical Depression 18, including its projected path.

Rafael—formerly Tropical Depression 18—was named Monday after strengthening into a tropical storm, but it appears it’s not stopping there.

Here’s everything you need to know about the 17th tropical cyclone of the active 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Will Rafael Strengthen into a Hurricane?

According to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center, the storm’s winds have intensified to 45 miles per hour, and forecasters said steady to rapid strengthening is likely as the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday.

Where Is Rafael Expected to Hit?

Rafael is expected to affect Jamaica and Cuba in the next few days before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

Schools in the Cayman Islands will be closed on Tuesday, as the government announced the islands are under a hurricane warning. The Cayman Islands also distributed sandbags, and officials predicted some property damage along the coasts due to high waves.

In the U.S., a tropical storm watch has been issued for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys. However, the overall forecast remains highly uncertain.

“The system is forecast to enter the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, but given significant uncertainties in the long-range forecast track and intensity, it is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts could occur. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast,” the NHC said Monday.

How Much Damage Can Rafael Do as a Hurricane?

Rafael could potentially be classified as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane, which are not considered major hurricanes (Category 3 and above). Here’s the list of hurricane categories:

• Category 1 (74-95 mph): A Category 1 storm can cause minimal damage, primarily to unanchored mobile homes, trees, and power lines. Extensive damage to power lines and poles probably will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.
• Category 2 (96-110 mph): A Category 2 storm can cause moderate damage, with the risk of significant harm to roofs and windows. Near-total power loss is likely, with outages potentially lasting from several days to weeks.
• Category 3 (111-129 mph): A Category 3 storm is classified as a major hurricane, although it is significantly weaker than a Category 4. Electricity and water may be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

• Category 4 (130-156 mph): A Category 4 storm poses a significant threat to well-built framed homes, with potential “severe” damage, including the loss of both roofs and walls. Most trees may be snapped or uprooted, and power poles could be downed. Additionally, power outages can last weeks, possibly even months, leaving much of the area uninhabitable for an extended period.
• Category 5 (157 mph and above): Total destruction, with a high percentage of homes severely damaged or destroyed.