With the presidential election just days away, the nation looks to Nate Silver for answers. The incredibly gifted statistician’s correct election predictions has people anxious: who does he think will win? Click through to learn more about Nate and his methods!
1. Nate Silver, 38, first gained notoriety by developing the PECOTA system, which forecasts the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players. His masterful baseball stats were applied in a column for Baseball Prospectus. The PECOTA system revolutionized stats by applying sabermetics to things like: the player’s performance, baseball economics, and other metrics.
2. Nate started forecasting political predictions under a pseudonym, Poblano, on Daily Kos in 2007. He established his blog, FiveThirtyEight, in May 2008, and revealed that he was actually Nate Silver. Nate correctly predicted the outcome of the 2008 presidential election in 49 out of 50 states, as well as DC — missing only Indiana. With his model, he even correctly predicted the winners of every US Senate race.
3. Nate called the 2012 presidential election months before it was ever certain, predicting that President Obama had 90.9% chance of winning a majority of the 538 electoral votes. Nate was right in his predictions for all 50 states and DC.
4. FiveThirtyEight gets its name from the number of electors in the Electoral College. The site provides a comprehensive look at political and sports predictions via a team of data journalists and statisticians, headed by Nate. It’s the go-to for getting accurate, unbiased polling leading up to an election or big event. The latest forecast on the 2016 race shows Hillary Clinton leading with a 64.6% chance of winning.
5. Nate doesn’t divulge his political leanings, and therefore keeps FiveThirtyEight, and its predictions, unbiased. Though he has said in the past that he’s voted for Obama, he’s an Independent voter, and does not align with any party.
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