Formula Predicts Woman’s Chance Of Getting Pregnant — New Study

Sat, October 6, 2012 3:37pm EST by 8 Comments
Pregnant formula science
Courtesy of Flickr

Scientists have finally developed a concrete mathematical formula to help women who are trying to start a family.

Experts have getting pregnant down to a science. Researchers from the University of Warwick and the London School of Economics have calculated a woman’s odds of conceiving based on age and length of time she has been trying to get pregnant.

Since fertility drops with age, the general likelihood of conceiving peaks at age 25, and plummets after age 35.

The formula, which was published in the scientific journal PLoS One, also takes into account how many months a woman has been trying to get pregnant, and the odds of conceiving drops dramatically as length of time increases.

For example, the formula has determined that a 25-year-old woman who has been trying to get pregnant for six months has a 15 percent chance of conceiving within the month, while a woman who is 35 and has been trying for 12 months only has a six percent chance of getting pregnant.

By age 40, the odds of drop even further to just one percent after two years.

The general rule of thumb is to seek medical help after one year of not conceiving, but age also plays a major factor in a woman’s fertility.

“As time goes by and people have been trying for a while, they start to get stressed and upset and that can affect their chances of having sex and then becoming pregnant. one of the researchers, Professor Geraldine Hartshorne, said.

“Approaching a doctor about a personal matter is daunting, so knowing the right time to start investigations would be a useful step forward.”

What do YOU think of this formula HollyMoms?

– Christina Stiehl

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Brittaney Ziebol

Posted at 12:25 PM on November 14, 2013  

Ovulation plays an important role in making you achieve your goals. Know your cycle and figure out when ovulation occurs in your body. It is probably the best time to have sex and let sperms meet the released egg. Different women have different cycles and ovulate mostly in between the whole cycle, so it might take some months for you to figure out exactly when you ovulate. Ovulation kits are also available in market to help you predict those important days. Once you know this, having sex on these days increase your chances to get pregnant.

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Posted at 8:33 PM on October 8, 2012  

Well i know i am 25 and have been trying to concieve for almost 2 years now. My issue is i have PCOS and next cycle i am starting on clomid. A lot of factors have to be in the right order at the right time for you to get pregnant. It is crazy how many factors and conditions have to be just right to get pregnant. Also if you are Vitamin D deficent it can hurt your chances of getting pregnant. Pregnancy is a miracle people should treat it as such.

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Posted at 7:21 PM on October 7, 2012  

some of you are idiots some women that try at a realitively young age still experience unexplained pregnancy losses/infertility not just women at or over 35. some people just aren’t meant to be mothers or want to be. studies like this are meant to be taken with a grain of Salt. as for the average age for Menopause it’s actually 51 and some women are driven into it earlier due to cancer treatment

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Posted at 3:28 PM on October 7, 2012  

Just one more foolish thing for teens to do and end up pregnany. Sickening.

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Posted at 12:25 PM on October 7, 2012  

This article is ridiculous and (should be) offensive to women who are having difficulties trying to conceive, who are over 35, near 35…. It adds unnecessary stress and worry to already tense situations. Certainly, one has to ask what was the goal of the researcher in compiling this data? Is it to market some over the counter fertility lubricant (a thing I saw in the shop yesterday), or is it to strike fear into women so that they’ll give up career ambitions, settle with a guy they don’t exactly like but he’s here and she’s not getting any younger as part of the ongoing history of a kind of violence towards women.

I think a real research on women men’s fertility needs to be a long term historical project (as much as possible) that takes into account: frequency of sexual activity, diet, birth control history, family fertility history, medical history (an aspirin a day may affect things more than we presume), allergies, desire to have a kid — maybe you don’t see that many 40 year old women getting knocked up because they don’t want a kid, their husband has malfunctioning sperm or even a vasectomy.

Anyway, the point of all this is, is that things can’t be as simple as “rotting eggs” and if you insist fertility is mostly age based, then that, is continuing this history of systemic misogyny.

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Posted at 11:52 PM on October 6, 2012  

What about the 25-year old woman who finds out she is pregnant 3 weeks after she starts dating the guy, even though they were using protection? Yeah…that was me. And then, 6 months after having that child, I got pregnant again while on the pill. Then I got pregnant a year after that second child was born while using an IUD. Really. (And I am a college-educated woman who knows how to read the directions on a pill bottle…)

But then I have friends who have tried for over a decade and have given up. The doctors say, “nothing is wrong”, but a baby just hasn’t happened.

I think conception and fertility are very very complicated, and this study doesn’t actually address the whys of the odds. Without a reason, without answers, these numbers mean nothing to those couples out there who have tried and tried desperately to conceive. The only good the odds in this study can do is to tell us if we are outliers and a) need to be on some serious birth control (i.e., me–we currently use 3 methods simultaneously and have not gotten preggo for 2 years–yay!!), or b) might want to see a doctor to find out if something is wrong.

And maybe that was the point of the study?

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Posted at 11:58 PM on October 6, 2012  

Oh, and just so you know: Same dad for all 3 kiddos (we got married when we got pregnant the first time and got lucky–we’re still happily married)…so maybe it has something to do with chemistry between the couple and not just one or the other’s body and fertility issues. This could explain why “nothing is wrong”, yet the couple cannot conceive. Just a thought…

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dee dee

Posted at 3:26 PM on October 7, 2012  

There are so many components that effect fertility that each one would have to be studied individually but age does play a very important role due to simple physiology women usually start to experience first signs of menapause from late 30’s to fourty’s the average age according to national gynecology is 52. But there has already been a decrease in production in viable eggs at a much earlier age and you have to take into consideration the uterine lining it can have processes that affect implantation such as endrometriosous also defects of the fallopian tubes and uterus .So its determined by much more than age . Its best to start planning at a young age because if you wait until you are fourty and something is wrong your options are much more limited.

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